The title of our update last weekend was Market Update: Indicators Flashing 'Risk Off' But The Real Test Is Next Week. Following the S&P 500's (SPY) decline through its 200 day moving average, we wanted to see if there would be follow-though action to confirm the downward move. The market was indecisive on Monday and Tuesday, before staging a big rally on Wednesday and ending the week flopping around on Thursday and Friday. At the same time, many of the "Risk Off" indicators that we analyze on a weekly basis seem to be in retreat, which is a good sign for the bulls. Last week's market activity seemed to us more bullish than bearish, but we are still cautious.
We begin this update with a review of the recent market activity. Then we will review our weekly "Risk On / Risk Off" indicators, which give us a better understanding of the macro environment. Finally, we will discuss the bull and bear cases for the market going forward and our investment plan.
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